No confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff passed 18-17.
By convention Rockliff will resign unless he can secure a fresh election from the Governor.
At this stage of term Governor should seek to appoint a replacement Premier if possible.
However it seems doubtful that a stable and willing alternative government can be formed as Labor does not appear willing to form government without an election.
House will sit on Tuesday to pass supply after which Rockliff will request election.
Election seems most likely but there are paths by which it might be avoided.
Earliest possible date July 19.
In-theory alternatives:
* Rockliff resigns, new Liberal Premier (no-one yet appears willing, unclear they would command confidence)
* Mid-term transfer to Labor (Labor appears unwilling to govern with Green support)
* Crossbench Premier (very unlikely either major party would support)
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Things might come to a head quickly here or it might be a fizzer but I thought I should put something up following today's news that Opposition Leader Dean Winter has used his budget reply speech to table a no confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
For those watching from afar, the Liberals were re-elected in minority at a March 2024 snap election that they went to because defections had cost them the majority they won at the May 2021 election and rendered the parliament unstable. The new parliament saw the Liberals with 14 of the 35 seats, Labor 10, Greens 5, Jacqui Lambie Network 3 and three independents. The Liberals formed government with the support of the three Lambie MPs via an agreement that overly restricted the latter, and also via a more conventional agreement with ex-Labor independent David O'Byrne. It has been widely claimed (including by the government) that they also had a supply and confidence guarantee from another independent Kristie Johnston but it's not true; Johnston's support was highly conditional and her letters were best viewed as outlining how she would approach confidence and supply matters.
The Lambie Network state party disintegrated with two MPs Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland quitting the party to sit as independents in August 2024; oddly they ended up continuing to grant confidence and supply to the government while remaining MP Andrew Jenner did not.
The government has had a bumpy ride already in the confidence department. In October it threw then Deputy Leader and Treasurer Michael Ferguson under the bus after David O'Byrne announced he had no confidence in Ferguson, who was under the pump over the Spirit of Tasmania ferries docking debacle. Ferguson resigned and went to the backbench. In November the Greens moved a no-confidence motion citing the government abandoning mandatory precommitment for poker machines. This led to a farcical day in which Labor announced they had no confidence in the government, tried and failed to amend the Greens' motion to remove all the reasons from it, then voted against the original motion which was supported by only the Greens and Johnston. Labor has since criticised Johnston for repeating that she had no confidence in the Government.
On May 6 this year (nobody noticed) the Greens sought leave to move another no confidence motion, this time over the proposed Macquarie Point stadium; leave was refused with only the Greens, Johnston and fellow independent Craig Garland supporting debating the motion.
This one, however, could be serious. Today Opposition Leader Dean Winter tabled this motion:
Winter stated that he would move this motion if satisfied that the crossbench supported it. At the time of writing all of Johnston, Garland and Jenner have stated they would support the motion. Pentland and Beswick have said they would not. David O'Byrne has criticised the Opposition for tabling the motion without consulting the crossbench and has also attacked Labor for being indecisive about confidence but has said he would consider the motion if moved (his Facebook post sounds pretty unimpressed). This seems to leave the ball in the court of the Greens, who are considering their position. Greens Leader Rosalie Woodruff was absent today.
[
UPDATE: Facebook screenshots of David O'Byrne comments are circulating that suggests he will not back the motion if it threatens the proposed stadium, which he supports.]
Where to from here?
After twice moving no confidence in the Government themselves the Greens would have a lot of explaining to do to their voters if they did not support this motion to bring it down, even if they didn't particularly agree with all the text. The Government would in effect become a Greens-supported Liberal government similar to the Rundle years.
If Labor moves the motion with Greens support and the support of Johnston, Garland and Jenner then it will pass conditional on the casting vote of Labor Speaker Michelle O'Byrne. If David O'Byrne also votes in favour or even abstains then the Speaker will be saved the trouble, but I'm not that sure how lucky she will be on that. A casting vote from an Opposition Speaker to depose a Premier could be contentious in view of neutral chairing conventions to preserve the status quo (Michael Polley voting out the Gray government in 1989 could be distinguished because that government never had the confidence of that Parliament in the first place.)
In the event of the motion passing Premier Rockliff will be obliged to resign (or dismissed if he fails to do so) unless he can convincingly argue that the loss of confidence is temporary and confidence will soon be recaptured. (That proviso applies, for instance, if a no confidence motion passes only because some MPs are absent).
It is also possible that if it is clear he does not have the numbers, Rockliff will resign to avoid defeat on the floor.
In either case the Governor will seek to appoint a replacement Premier. This can be anyone in the Parliament who is willing to be appointed and who the Governor considers has the best chance of maintaining supply and confidence, ideally for some time. This early in the term, it is very unlikely the Governor would accept advice for a fresh election if anyone else was viable and willing to serve as a replacement Premier.
As the motion refers specifically to the current Premier, in theory the replacement could be a Liberal but in practice it is hard to see that working smoothly for very long - the problems the crossbench and Opposition have with this government are not specific to its leader. Any replacement who was willing to accept the job with crossbench support would be seen as having betrayed Rockliff and the fallout within a party reeling from a federal smashing in the state could be very ugly. However Rockliff could make this easier by resigning before any replacement sought crossbench support; the question still being would they get it and at what cost.
Assuming potential Liberal replacements held the line the Governor would most likely send for the Opposition Leader and ask Dean Winter if he was willing and able to govern, and only if unconvinced that these things were both true after consulting with the crossbench (the latter re "able") would she move on to much less likely candidates. In theory it is even possible for a crossbencher to become Premier though that crossbencher would need support of at least one major party, which seems unlikely.
Finally if no-one can be found who is willing and able to form a new government that can realistically expect the confidence of the House, the Parliament is deemed to be exhausted and a fresh election is then called. A caretaker Premier would be appointed to request the election.
If Premier Rockliff seeks an election while the no confidence motion is pending then that request should by convention be refused. If it passes he could request an election but he would no longer have standing to be the Governor's advisor so his request could be ignored and would be if there was any viable alternative. (The government would not want an election now anyway if it could avoid one). It is possible that if the motion passes and no alternative government could be formed, then Rockliff might be kept in office conditional on calling an election immediately.
Clearly Labor are emboldened by their massive federal result in the state, followed by a Legislative Council election in which they easily retained Pembroke with an attractive vote in Liberal-leaning booths while the Government was thrashed in Nelson and Montgomery. The recent EMRS poll, while not showing Labor up to much, showed Liberal primary vote support at its lowest level since the Liberals were in hapless opposition to Labor's Bacon/early Lennon glory days. And I am not sure how many voters care about the dry subjects of debt and budget management but I believe Labor are on a winner in picking out asset sales especially.
Stadium Implications
I have seen several supporters of the Macquarie Point stadium criticising Winter for tabling the motion and arguing that the stadium is in jeopardy. However, at present there is bipartisan support for the stadium which will return to the Parliament at the end of the Project Of State Significance process. A mid-term change of government or an election with a change of government don't seem to threaten the stadium unless at some point the Liberal Party walks away from it ("we have heard the message from voters" etc under a new leader). An early election would play havoc with the Government's attempt to fast-track approval of the stadium but that seems hardly necessary to it proceeding and may well have been dead in the upper house anyway. I asked Chris Rowbottom about this and he suggested that an early election would push out timelines sufficient to kill off the project.
Updates to follow; even if nothing happens here I hope that laying out the ground for where a successful no-confidence motion could go will be useful for next time!
UPDATES WEDNESDAY 4TH:
* A further complication is that the Governor is away so the Lieutenant Governor Chris Shanahan is currently in charge at Government House. However I would expect the Governor to be consulted or to return post haste.
* 9:40 GREENS SUPPORT MOTION: Rosalie Woodruff has tweeted that the Greens will support the motion.
* 9:45 Labor will move the motion at 10 am.
* 10:04 Dean Winter is moving a motion to suspend standing orders to move a motion of no confidence.
* 10:15 Parliament House webcast has crashed under the load. Eric Abetz is replying so debate on the SSO is continuing.
* 10:30 Standing orders have been suspended quickly and onto the substantive motion - speeches may go much of the day depending on how many want to speak.
* 11:00 A comment I made above that "anyone in the Parliament" could become Premier has taken an unusual turn with a tounge in cheek offer from MLC Ruth Forrest! When I made this comment I had in mind the lower house only but for the record it could in theory be a Legislative Councillor and indeed several of the 19th century Premiers were Legislative Councillors; in more recent times Legislative Councillors have served for instance as Treasurer (Michael Aird).
* 11:05 ABC News is currently livestreaming the debate. Not sure how long this will continue.
* 11:30 Shannon Wells is livestreaming the debate on Twitter for those with access. Jeremy Rockliff has finished his speech and Rosalie Woodruff is speaking.
* 11:48 Rosalie Woodruff is moving an amendment to add stadium-related content. I expect this won't pass and we will return to the substantive motion, but not sure how long the amendment will take.
* 11:53 Labor will not support the amendment. In theory the Liberals could support the amendment to embarrass Labor but Labor would probably just vote for the amended motion anyway.
* 1:02 Bells are ringing for the vote on the Greens' amendment. Interestingly Pentland and Beswick who are against the substantive motion are voting for the amendment which will fail. [Update: And did, 10-24 with the entire crossbench bar David O'Byrne in favour.] Debate resumes after lunch.
* 2:05 As the vote appears on track for a 17-17 tie there is a lot of attention on the question of the Speaker's casting vote and Westminster speakership traditions. Pages are circulating from the Companion to the House of Assembly Standing Orders, which explicily refers to no-confidence motions as an example of something where the Westminster traditions would normally be taken to apply, but then the discussion also goes on to discuss considerations of proportionality. Various governments (including this one in its previous majority terms) have shown that the convention does not apply to a government Speaker when the government has a majority of one and constantly needs to use their casting vote to win the day.
* 2:40 Oh the humanity! Dean Winter and Josh Willie have been EXPELLED from the Yes Team, Yes Stadium Facebook group! I am not sure they will ever recover ...
* 2:50 David O'Byrne has restated that his support is for Premier Rockliff only, not necessarily any Liberal MP. He's also complaining that Dean Winter's communications with him have been confined to "cursory hellos". It looks like he is lining up to vote against the substantive motion.
* 4:00 Andrew Jenner has confirmed he will vote for the motion and has said he is open to working with either side going forwards. Meanwhile the web feed remains in a parlous state.
* 5:50 Miriam Beswick has confirmed she will vote against the motion. This could still have a long way to go, by my count we are up to about speaker 13 of potentially 34.
* 6:05 The Australian is running a line that Winter was just trying to wedge the crossbench and did not expect them to support his motion. I'm unconvinced this is the case. Whether he knows what comes next is another question - it may be that a deal has already been done or it may be that Winter figures that all of the possible outcomes are good.
* 6:23 The expression "possum on crack trying to load a dishwasher" is on its way to Hansard immortality (Kristie Johnston quoting Andrew Wilkie if I remember correctly).
* 7:40 Debate adjourned - there was a division on adjourning or not but Andrew Jenner voted for adjourning so it looks like we will come back tomorrow at 10 am.
In 1989 when Robin Gray chose to "meet the parliament" and make them vote him out, Labor and the Greens refused to adjourn with the key amendment to turn the Address of Reply into a statement of no confidence finally passed at 7 am, In 1956 when the Cosgrove government was able to secure a dissolution for a very early election despite a defection giving the Liberals a floor and overall majority, the fact that they had been able to secure an adjournment was one of their arguments that they still controlled the House. In this case I am not sure if the adjournment gives the Government any usable new tactical options. Is there anything left they can negotiate or are the crossbenchers (as it seems) not for turning?
There have been cases of leaders - very controversially - getting Westminster parliaments prorogued in order to try to avoid no-confidence motions (Tasmania's example being Harry Holgate 1981) but I am not aware of any case where prorogation has been granted with a no confidence motion in progress and apparently set to succeed - and a prorogation even if granted would not be very long as Supply still needs to be obtained. At the very least the Governor would be entitled to say no, and should say no.
UPDATES THURSDAY 5TH:
It's worth noting (re the Speakership conventions debate) that Michelle O'Byrne can choose to vacate the chair and go to the floor and vote there (giving the motion a floor majority). There was some discussion of this on ABC this morning with former Premier Peter Gutwein mentioning the possibility and saying he hopes it doesn't occur.
Kate Crowley was quoted on the ABC yesterday as saying the Premier could just advise the Governor to ignore the no-confidence motion and it would blow over. This option by convention only applies where the Premier can argue a convincing path to recapturing confidence. It most often applies in cases where a no-confidence vote does not truly represent the numbers because a seat is vacant or a member is away. Neither applies in this case.
10:00 Rockliff has said he if the motion succeeds he will go to the Lieutenant-Governor and request an election. As noted if he has lost the confidence of the House his advice can be freely disregarded unless no willing and viable alternative exists (which may yet be the case).
10:10 Recent Liberal speakers have referred to the result of the election and argued that Tasmanian voters chose them. However the 2024 election did not give any party anywhere near a majority and left deciding who would be the Government in the hands of the Parliament - which includes the possibility that at some point the Parliament might change its mind. If voters had wanted the Liberals to govern untrammeled they would have given them another majority, as they did in the 2018 and 2021 elections only for both those governments to be unable to keep that majority full term.
10:30 Dean Winter has said he will "not do a deal or form Government with the Greens". So unless a crossbencher blinks or the Liberals throw Rockliff under the bus, that looks like an election.
11:15 Craig Garland is speaking and indicating his confusion with Labor's tactics but also saying he agrees with the propositions in the no confidence motion and is not happy that the Government has totally ignored his concerns. He will vote in favour of the motion.
11:35 Rebekah Pentland is as expected speaking against the motion. I have her as speaker number 26 with a maximum nine to go though I would expect Michelle O'Byrne and possibly Simon Behrakis not to speak. It has been noted that no Labor MPs are speaking on the motion which may signify that they just want to get on with it.
11:37 Michael Ferguson speaking now and getting stuck into Winter (it is always interesting to hear Ferguson speak after his own fate earlier in the term). Still to speak by my tally: Behrakis (Lib - may not), Fairs, Shelton and Wood (Lib), Brown, Butler, Farrell (ALP) and Michelle O'Byrne (ALP - probably won't)
11:57 Labor's Jen Butler is now speaking so it may be we will also hear from the remaining Labor members which could keep things going a few hours, especially given the lunch break from 1-2:30.
1:00 I've been flagging that a caretaker Premier (probably Winter) could be appointed or Rockliff allowed to remain in office in a caretaker capacity for a few days to secure Supply. An election takes a minimum 33 days to polling day and then almost three weeks to count, so that's taking us into very late July at the earliest before Parliament could sit again.
1:16 As of lunch the 31st speaker Casey Farrell was on his feet, leaving Brown, Shelton, Behrakis and Michelle O'Byrne who have not spoken. Debate resumes 2:30.
1:50 EMRS has dropped results of its annual Budget survey, a panel poll of 500 respondents, with the Budget holding a net rating of -21 (26-47) and the stadium net -27 (30-57).
3:00 Just putting this here as a permanent record of the state of the previous two days. Grrr! Anyway debate has resumed - not long to go now!
3:03 On to Mark Shelton, possibly the last speaker. [EDIT: except Winter gets another half an hour if he wants it.]
3:40 Michelle O'Byrne is now outlining why she will vote for the motion, which was tied 17-17 all on the floor. The motion has passed on her casting vote. O'Byrne highlighted the need to pass Supply, so we may not be going direct to an election, but has mentioned there is provision for two months (just enough?)
4:26 Rockliff is off to the Lieutenant-Governor to request an election ... we await the colour of the smoke from Government House.
5:15 The earliest posssible election date is July 12, which would in theory see the election count finish around July 26, but the TEC would want to allow an extra week to that in case of the need for a recount.
5:35 For the third straight (possible) election, we are starting to see the usual nonsense about how the Lt. Governor should test the numbers in Parliament before calling an election. Excluding the possibility of a caretaker Premier to secure supply then call an election, the Lt. Governor shouldn't be appointing a new Premier without being satisfied that that person is willing and able to form a government with some prospect of commanding supply and confidence. In particular there is no point appointing an MP unwilling to accept appointment as they would just immediately resign. There is also no point appointing someone who wants to be Premier but does not provide convincing evidence of some prospect of confidence and supply support - see Will Hodgman 2010 for an obvious precedent.
5:55 Some attention on Dean Winter's comments in terms of whether he might accept government on a more than caretaker basis but without making any attempt to seek confidence from the Greens, so I will note that this hasn't yet been very explicitly ruled out. Perhaps in the circumstances the Governor might consider this as different from 2010 if it was the only option and if the Greens indicated wilingness to support such an arrangement, but it's all speculation re whether Winter would even consider it.
6:15 By my count previous premiers to lose no confidence motions since 1900: Elliott Lewis 1909, John Earle 1909 (a week later), Albert Solomon 1914, Walter Lee 1923, Harry Holgate 1982, Robin Gray 1989 (on meeting parliament after losing election), and now Jeremy Rockliff 2025. I may have missed one or two. Several others resigned or called elections to avoid the same fate. By the way the Governor returns on Monday.
6:42 While doing an interview I heard that Premier Rockliff intends to meet with the Governor on Tuesday to request an election so we may be in suspense for a few days.
6:54 Yes Rockliff intends for parliament to sit on Tuesday to pass supply and then to visit the Governor to request an election. He has already met with the Lieutenant-Governor who must have approved this course of action. Effectively he is remaining as a caretaker to secure supply so frontline workers can be paid. This will push the earliest possible election date to July 19.
FRIDAY 9:30 Something I want to knock on the head (though I'm sure it won't stop people saying it) is the idea that Dean Winter has an obligation to become Premier now if the Governor wishes to appoint him for the purposes of attempting to form a stable government. This seems to arise from the Governor's reasons following the 2010 election in which Governor Underwood said that David Bartlett had an obligation to form government. However firstly that situation was different - Bartlett was the incumbent holder of the commission and an election had just been held. Secondly the claim that Bartlett had such an obligation has been criticised eg by
Anne Twomey here:
"The source of this obligation is not clear. Nor are there any obvious precedents for it. Certainly it is the case that if a government resigns (eg, after an election loss or a vote of no confidence), it remains in office in care-taker mode until such time as a new government is commissioned. Accordingly, if Mr Bartlett had resigned, he and his government would have remained in office until Mr Hodgman had been commissioned as Premier. This is not an obligation to ‘form’ a government, but rather to continue administering government as a care-taker until a new government is formed."
Anyone who a Governor commissioned who was entirely unwilling to serve in the circumstances could simply embarrass the Governor by resigning immediately. Governors cannot compel anyone to be Premier, they can however persuade.
4:00 The option of the Liberals continuing without Rockliff is getting attention since the delay until Tuesday has given time for the party to steer away from the election cliff if enough of them really want to do it.
The Fontcast has suggested the parliamentary party is not united behind Rockliff but the majority supports him. Jonathan Duniam's comments were interesting today too. It was clear from the speeches on the no-confidence motion that plenty of Liberals are genuinely emotionally loyal to Rockliff and that the party prevailing on him to resign would be messy. Rockliff would really have to make the decision himself. The new Premier would have to make major concessions to the crossbench, most likely starting with ditching the stadium. It might not be many months before the crossbench, once the stadium was clearly dead, was back for more.
5:00 Brad Stansfield has also announced on the above that he will not be working for the Liberal campaign in the event of an election on account of advice to keep Craig Garland onside being ignored.
Friday night: I'll be otherwise occupied this weekend with infrequent updates (will be new article time soon!) I checked to see whether any Australian government has ever won an election it was forced to after losing a no-confidence motion. I found just one (vs numerous losses) - in Victoria 1921 the Nationalists under Harry Lawson were brought down by Labor and the Victorian Farmers Union (proto-Country/Nationals) but the election returned a virtually unchanged parliament and Lawson continued on.
Monday night: LAMBIE DUMPS JENNER. Jacqui Lambie as saying people shouldn't read it as her dumping Andrew Jenner as a JLN member, what, have they been consciously uncoupled or something? Jenner was
previously promised that Lambie would back him "to the hilt" in a future state election but has now been
blindsided by her saying she will not endorse him, supposedly because she has to concentrate on being a Senator. The election (if there is one) could be over before the Senate sits! Lambie could nominate Jenner as a JLN candidate and tell him he needed to do his own election campaign, funding and paperwork. Jenner does not deserve this, he has been loyal to a fault. Pentland and Beswick did not deserve their treatment by Lambie either. The Jacqui Lambie Notwork (yes you see what I did there) has now elected five people who are not Jacqui Lambie and all five have been kicked out, dumped or become mysteriously estranged. That's a disunity strike rate even One Nation would struggle to match.
